Risk level: ORANGE - High

RED: Severe (+/- 4%) ORANGE: High (+/- 2%)  YELLOW: Elevated (+/- 1%)  BLUE: Guarded (+/- ½%)

THE BOOSTER SHOT

•             Russia shoots down myth that Trump is influencing OPEC with Twitter

•             Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih warned the road ahead could be "tortuous"

•             Watch out for a Turkish premium for oil if there's a security fallout from Sunday elections

The big question marking hanging over the OPEC conference in Vienna was the influence of one Donald J.  Trump.  The president in the midst of Friday's rally in crude oil prices called for substantial increases in production in order to keep prices down. A statement from OPEC+ on Friday agreed in principle to increase production by about 1 million barrels per day starting in July. In actuality, however, the agreement only referenced a return to 100 percent compliance with the balancing act that's now put the market teetering close to a deficit. Few of the formal documents from Vienna referenced the tense political climate, but Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih's mention of a "tortuous" road ahead spoke volumes about the potential for geopolitical risk. We were more or less on par with our predictions last week as the price for Brent climbed 2.9 percent and we expect another volatile week ahead.

"As we are all aware, while the current market is strong and the long-term picture remains healthy, there could be bumps in the road ahead and the path could be tortuous," Falih said in remarks on Thursday. "This means new challenges are certain to emerge."

Those new challenges could emerge from OPEC members Venezuela and Iran, who may be unable to help offset what Falih said could be a supply deficit of as much as 1.7 million barrels per day. Relaxing compliance to 100 percent, however, means the implied return of a possible 1 million bpd.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh pressed for some language about the extraordinary market impact of U.S. sanctions, which extend to Venezuela as well as to Iran. Storming out at one point, the minister returned to the microphone, however, to stress the importance of compromise solutions in order to keep confidence in OPEC high.

Was there a Trump factor behind OPEC's decision? It depends on how one gauge's influence. It's not unthinkable given the lessons learned during the Reagan administration. Oil prices in part were responsible for Reagan's tenure. Writing in 2014, the president's son, Michael, said President Reagan pitted the Saudis against the Soviet Union by flooding the market with oil.

"Lower oil prices devalued the ruble, causing the USSR to go bankrupt, which led to perestroika and Mikhail Gorbachev and the collapse of the Soviet Empire," he wrote.

But this time is different. Now Russia is the largest non-member state contributor to OPEC's production agreement. On Saturday, it was Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak who was seated in Vienna next to Falih, the chairman of the committee tasked with monitoring the deal. For Trump, the issue isn't about containment, but about showing U.S. taxpayers he can keep their wallets open. For Russia, its seat at the OPEC table is a coup of sorts as the Kremlin now has a hand on the spigot. The United States is on pace to pass Russia as the world's largest oil producer, but pipeline constraints from the Permian shale and limitations at U.S. port facilities could impact shale's global influence. Trump's pressure on OPEC, then, could've been for domestic, not strategic, influence. This time around, more oil from Saudi Arabia does the U.S. economy a favor, rather than striking a direct blow to a U.S. adversary.

Novak, for his part, answered the Trump question on Saturday when he said the OPEC+ group does not make decisions based on the president's social media account.

"Twitter is not one of the instruments upon which we make our decisions," he said.

Next week, Novak is expected to sit down with U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry ahead of the World Gas Conference in Washington D.C.  Those talks will likely focus on U.S. natural gas in the market. The Trump administration said U.S. energy could be a tool to counter those countries that use oil and natural gas resources for coercion. In statements last month, U.S. Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, said the domestic oil and gas industry "is a force multiplier for U.S. influence around the world." That influence, however, may depend on the same infrastructure bottlenecking Permian shale, U.S. steel tariffs aside.

Looming beneath the ever-present Trump headline are elections in Turkey that could test the tenure and political direction for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.  His main challenge is a secular political party that's pledged to reverse an authoritarian direction from Erdogan. Turkey has long seen its geographical position as an advantage in the energy sector, bridging the gap between Central Asia and Europe. That advantage has been on the strategic radar of the world's leading superpowers at least since the first World War. One of the world's biggest chokepoints for the flow of oil is in Turkish waters. If elections turn out to be destabilizing, Turkey could emerge as an under-the-radar risk premium.

Even with Friday's big spike, Brent is holding beneath the $80 per barrel threshold. Next week's financial calendar is full with indices that could influence the direction of crude oil prices. On Tuesday, we'll get a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence at a time when gasoline prices are making headline news. On Thursday, we get another look at first quarter GDP for the United States. It should be another volatile week ahead. The price for Brent might cool off on Monday as traders cash in, but there are many political and economic factors ahead. We're issuing another Orange alert for the coming week, seeing Brent moving by about 2 percent. Weak U.S. economic data and media spin on the OPEC meeting could move oil lower. If Turkey destabilizes, or the situation in Libya gets worse, expect Brent to move higher.